PanSim + Sim-2APL: A Framework for Large-Scale Distributed Simulation with Complex Agents

Agent-based simulation is increasingly being used to model social phenomena involving large numbers of agents. However, existing agent-based simulation platforms severely limit the kinds of the social phenomena that can modeled, as they do not support large scale simulations involving agents with complex behaviors. In this paper, we present a scalable agent-based simulation framework that supports modeling of complex social phenomena. The framework integrates a new simulation platform that exploits distributed computer architectures, with an extension of a multi-agent programming technology that allows development of complex deliberative agents. To show the scalability of our framework, we briefly describe its application to the development of a model of the spread of COVID-19 involving complex deliberative agents in the US state of Virginia. © 2022, Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

Quantifying the Effects of Norms on COVID-19 Cases Using an Agent-Based Simulation

Modelling social phenomena in large-scale agent-based simulations has long been a challenge due to the computational cost of incorporating agents whose behaviors are determined by reasoning about their internal attitudes and external factors. However, COVID-19 has brought the urgency of doing this to the fore, as, in the absence of viable pharmaceutical interventions, the progression of the pandemic has primarily been driven by behaviors and behavioral interventions. In this paper, we address this problem by developing a large-scale data-driven agent-based simulation model where individual agents reason about their beliefs, objectives, trust in government, and the norms imposed by the government. These internal and external attitudes are based on actual data concerning daily activities of individuals, their political orientation, and norms being enforced in the US state of Virginia. Our model is calibrated using mobility and COVID-19 case data. We show the utility of our model by quantifying the benefits of the various behavioral interventions through counterfactual runs of our calibrated simulation. © 2022, Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

Cryopreservation of Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Grafts Did Not Adversely Affect Early Post-Transplant Survival during the First Six Months of the COVID-19 Pandemic

[Formula presented] Introduction: During the COVID-19 pandemic, concerns regarding travel logistics and donor safety necessitated a substantial increase in the use of cryopreserved hematopoietic stem cell (HSC) grafts from both related (RD) and unrelated donors (URD) to ensure patients have a graft available prior to the start of conditioning for hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). However, pre-pandemic data beyond single center or small multi-center reports are lacking to reassure clinicians that cryopreservation of allogeneic grafts does not adversely impact post-HCT outcomes including hematopoietic engraftment and overall survival (OS). The Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research (CIBMTR) has recently published three retrospective analyses of outcomes in recipients of cryopreserved compared to fresh grafts administered prior to the pandemic. Results have been conflicting and reasons for receipt of cryopreserved grafts were not routinely collected, rendering interpretation of the impact of cryopreservation on clinical outcomes problematic. Since the pandemic provided a unifying rationale (including mandatory cryopreservation required by the National Marrow Donor Program (NMDP) and other major registries) for the majority of patients to receive cryopreserved allografts, we sought to evaluate early post-HCT clinical outcomes in patients reported to the CIBMTR database who received a first allogeneic HCT using cryopreserved grafts from March through August 2020. Methods: Key study endpoints were hematopoietic engraftment and overall survival (OS). We compared these outcomes to those in patients allografted using fresh products transplanted between March through August 2019. Additional patient selection criteria included: 1) recipients in US only, 2) peripheral blood stem cell (PBSC) or bone marrow (BM) grafts, 3) consented to research, and 4) availability of both CIBMTR product infusion and post-HCT day 100 (D100) follow-up form. The Pearson chi-square test was used for comparing discrete variables;the Kruskal-Wallis test was used for comparing continuous variables. Multivariate analysis (MVA) using a Cox proportional hazards model was performed for OS after adjusting for confounders and testing the proportional hazards assumption. Neutrophil engraftment by D28 and platelet engraftment by D100 were analyzed using multivariate logistic regression. Results: This study included 959 and 2,499 recipients of cryopreserved and fresh products, respectively. Patient characteristics are presented in Table 1. Recipients of cryopreserved grafts were older, more likely to receive URD grafts, PBSC as the graft source and post-transplant cyclophosphamide (PTCy) for graft versus host disease (GVHD) prophylaxis. They received lower infused PBSC and BM cell doses. Due to differences in duration of follow-up between the cohorts, follow up for the OS analysis was censored at Days 100 and 180. MVA results are presented in Table 2. No impact of cryopreservation on OS at either D100 (HR 0.93, p=0.72) or D180 (HR 1.10, p=0.34) post HCT was detected (see also Figure 1). When we performed the MVA for OS limiting the analysis to URD recipients only, the results were unchanged. Median time to neutrophil and platelet engraftment were both delayed by 1 day in recipients of cryopreserved grafts (16 vs. 15 days and 21 vs. 20 days, respectively) but there was no difference in the risk of primary graft failure by D28 (OR 1.38, p=0.96). Some delay in D100 platelet engraftment was observed in recipients of cryopreserved grafts (OR 0.67, p<0.005). There were no interactions identified between donor or graft type for OS or engraftment. Other important clinical outcomes such as secondary graft failure, acute GVHD, and early relapse are being analyzed and will be included at the time of presentation. Conclusion: The shift in clinical practice to cryopreserved products necessitated during the pandemic did not adversely impact early post HCT OS or risk of primary graft failure. We caution that follow up is short and it ill be critical to follow this cohort and subsequent recipients of cryopreserved grafts for much longer periods to determine the ultimate impact of cryopreservation on outcomes. Nevertheless, this large multi-center study will be useful to inform clinical decision making both during and following the pandemic. [Formula presented] Disclosures: Devine: Sanofi: Consultancy, Research Funding;Magenta Therapeutics: Current Employment, Research Funding;Tmunity: Current Employment, Research Funding;Vor Bio: Research Funding;Kiadis: Consultancy, Research Funding;Johnsonand Johnson: Consultancy, Research Funding;Orca Bio: Consultancy, Research Funding;Be the Match: Current Employment. Stefanski: Novartis: Honoraria. Shaw: mallinkrodt: Other: payments;Orca bio: Consultancy.